For centuries, the single power in control of all of Eastern Europe was the regime in Moscow(Or St Petersburg). After the Deluge and the subsequent fall of the Polish-Lithuanian Commonwealth, the Russians took more of Eastern Europe, to the point of monopolizing it. This system continued for centuries, and the Non-Russian ethnic groups under Russian control were treated horribly, such as the Poles, the Baltics, and the Caucasians. So, when the Russian Revolution happened, and the Russian Empire collapsed as the Bolsheviks took control, several nations declared independence in the subsequent years during the Russian Civil War, Such as Poland, Finland, Ukraine, the Baltic States, along with minor Cossack states. 

However, as the Bolsheviks consolidated power, and began to ruthlessly punish anyone who stood in their way, the newly formed nations realized that they only had a certain amount of time before the Soviets started to try to take all their territory back. Their fears were confirmed when the Cossacks and Ukraine were rapidly taken over, and the Soviets began preparing to take Warsaw in the Polish Soviet War. So, the remaining states began to fight their own wars to secure their independence, such as the Finnish Civil War, or the Estonian War of Independence. After defeat in the Battle of Warsaw, and Polish victory in the Polish Soviet War, the Soviet Union seemed to give up their territorial ambitions in Eastern Europe. Or so they thought.

In World War 2, the Nazi’s sought to invade Poland, but they were worried that the Soviet Union, their ideological enemy, would react to the annexation. So, they decided to temporarily make an alliance with their enemy so they could divide up Poland together. The subsequent Molotov Ribbentrop Pact also gave Russia a massive sphere of influence over the rest of Eastern Europe, including the Baltics, Bearbaressia(Moldavia), and Karleia(Part of Finland). In 1940, while the allies got absolutely wrecked, the Soviets annexed more and more territory in Eastern Europe, securing their control. The people living under occupation were treated even worse than under the Russian Empire, as hundreds of thousands of people were deported to the gulags in Siberia, or executed immediately. After Operation Barbarossa, and the Nazi invasion of the Soviet Union, even more people were deported, accused of being traitors. After World War 2, and the defeat of Germany, the Soviets had monopolized Eastern Europe, setting up puppet Communist governments in East Germany, Poland, Czechoslovakia, Hungary, Romania, and Bulgaria. Any nation who dared step out of line was invaded immediately, which was shown in Hungary and Czechoslovakia. 

Finally in 1985, Gorbachev took control of the Soviet Union, and decided to do things differently than his predecessors. He decided that the people should be allowed to express their opinion, and have economic freedom, through the Glasnost and Perestroika initiatives. This was supposed to make people like the government more, but it had the opposite effect, as most people in the USSR were sick of Communism. This was proven, as in 1989, massive revolutions began across Eastern Europe, from East Germany to Romania, as the people rose up and overthrew the brutal Communist regime. Soon, the Soviet Union itself would collapse, as the Soviet Republics would begin to leave, with Russia being the biggest out of them. Despite being the largest nation in the world, Russia was not in a good spot, as it was at its smallest in centuries, and they wanted to get their empire and prestige back.

Eastern Europe, having learned their lesson based on previous experiences with the Russians, realized that the best way to avoid being attacked by the Russians again was to join NATO. When NATO was first created, to avoid being attacked by the Soviets, they made NATO Article 5, which states that an attack against one nation is an attack on all. This would mean that, if someone attacked a NATO member, they could invoke Article 5, and all other NATO nations, including the United States, the most powerful country in the world, would have to intervene to defeat the aggressor. So, NATO enlarged in the 1990’s and 2000’s to include nations fearful of a Russia that would come after them again.

The nations of Eastern Europe had their fears realized when, in 1994, Autonomous Chechnya was invaded by Russian forces, as the Chechnyan’s were trying to gain independence, but were brutally suppressed by the Russians. Although Chechnya won, and became De-Facto independent, everyone in Eastern Europe saw: Russia had not given up on their imperialist ambitions. On top of that, the Russians also intervened in the Georgian Civil War during this time, and gained two puppet states at that time, Abkhazia, and South Ossetia, and the Tajik Civil War, gaining a sort of puppet state in Tajikistan.

In 2008, NATO invited Georgia and Ukraine to join the organization. This was the final straw for the Kremlin, who immediately recognized Georgia’s separatist republics of Abkhazia and South Ossetia, and began invading Georgia. In the 6 day Russian Georgian War, the Georgian military was demolished by the Russian armies, and Abkhazian and South Ossetian territories were secured. This was a warning to all nations of Eastern Europe: If you think about joining NATO, the Russians will put you in your place, as their puppet. Ukraine immediately learned their lesson, and decided to scale back from NATO and EU membership for a little while. 

In 2013, the Pro-Russian President of Ukraine, Viktor Yanukovych was negotiating with the EU on EU membership, much to the delight of the people. However, in a surprise(or not that surprising) move, he suddenly scaled back on the agreements, and began seeking closer ties to Russia. Obviously, most Ukranians were not in the mood, and began protesting in the Euromaidan protest. Over the next few months, the protests were growing increasingly larger, until finally, in February 2014, the Revolution of Dignity happened, where the protesters overthrew the government. Almost immediately, Russia annexed Crimea, and supported separatists in the Donbas region, beginning the Donbas War, and foreshadowed the Russian Ukrainian War. 

In February 2022, after months of buildup, and warnings that NATO would respond, Russia invaded Ukraine, beginning the largest conflict in Europe since World War 2. Most analysts believed that the war would be over in a few weeks, as the Ukrainian Military was inferior to that of the Russians. However, due to coordinated funding by NATO, including weapons shipments, and sanctions on Russia, cutting off Russia from its largest oil and gas market, the EU. By April, the Russians had been pushed back from Kyiv, and had to focus on Eastern Ukraine only.

So, because of NATO, Russia can’t do whatever it wants with its imperialist tendencies. On top of that, although Russia blames all this on NATO expansion, this was because of their previous actions of ruthlessly subjugating nations that tried to leave. Time and time again, they had the opportunity to learn from their mistakes, and they chose not to.